“区块链没有黑夜。在2019年的第一天,希望新的一年币圈内能擦出更多价值的火花。星星之火,可以燎原。值此元旦之际,谨以此文献给每一个坚守在行业内的人们。”AbstractThe
concept of Bitcoin first appeared in the world in 2008 and Bitcoin first
appeared in the world in 2019. Now after 10 years, Bitcoin starts to
move gradually from the geek world towards the mass capital markets.
Especially in the recent two years, the real value of Bitcoin has been
the centre of an increasingly vibrant discussion in the market. Even
practitioners and academia are debating on how to value Bitcoin
appropriately.With the burst of financial bubbles in 2017 and 2018, the
real intrinsic value of Bitcoin is still highly debated.Based on data
from July 2016 to December 2018, this research paper aims to explain the
relationships between Bitcoin price and its intrinsic value based on the
market equilibrium in the mining industry.The model has significantly
explanatory power on some recent cryptocurrency events through
microeconomics cost analysis method. We concede the needs to consider
the endogeneity of themodel and will analyse retail trading activities
in a subsequent research
paper.为方便各位读者,在英文版后附有中文翻译(本文共10000字,阅读全文约需25分钟)以下为中文版本:

In the middle of the Bitcoin bubble

It’s been almost a month since Wall Street took a step toward adopting
Bitcoin as its own with the launch of cash-settled futures contracts.
The results haven’t been stellar.

Promoted as “Gold 2.0,” Bitcoin hasn’t quite worked out that way: Its
price in dollars has fallen by about 20 per cent from a mid-December
high, while its volatility has climbed to its highest in two years.
Bitcoin may be part of the financial firmament, as one hedge-fund
manager put it, but it’s still wildly
unpredictable.

Meanwhile, attention has shifted to a Bitcoin competitor that is sucking
up a lot of the trading oxygen in the room: Ripple. The price of this
digital token has risen 240 per cent over the past
month.
Never mind that in absolute terms this marks an increase from about 70¢
to $US2.40, or the price of a cup of coffee.

The pie-in-the-sky math of cryptocurrency market capitalisation means
that the circulating supply of Ripple, combined with an extra pile
locked up in its treasury, has made its chairman a top global
billionaire on paper. Much back-slapping and industry enthusiasm has
ensued amid boasts that the cryptocurrency leader-board is being
disrupted.

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Ripple’s distributed-ledger technology moves payments between banks, and
it has promoted itself as a friend of regulators. Ripple Coin News

A charitable explanation might be that, as regulators face added
pressure to respond to the global
crypto-frenzy,
the world has suddenly woken up to the potential of teachers’ pets like
Ripple over anti-bank rebels like Bitcoin.

Ripple’s distributed-ledger technology moves payments between banks, and
it has promoted itself as a friend of regulators. The Bank of England
could be found tinkering with it last year, politely calling it “useful”

  • but not yet mature enough to replace its current interbank payments
    system.

Bank-friendly blockchains
look more like hopeful experiments than products ready for real
adoption. But for some crypto fans these experiments by regulators may
be endorsement enough.

A less charitable view would suggest this looks more like another moment
of speculative madness in a market that’s dominated by individual
investors, not institutions.

Ripple has been around for five years, and has traded at for pennies for
much of them. As recently as May 2017, one Ripple was worth 10¢. The
recent price gains were accompanied by word-of-mouth tips and
social-media rumours that more exchanges would be adding Ripple soon
(this kind of thing usually boosts a token).

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The pie-in-the-sky math of cryptocurrency market capitalisation means
that the circulating supply of Ripple, combined with an extra pile
locked up in its treasury, has made its chairman a top global
billionaire on paper. Ripple.com

When Coinbase effectively
quashed those rumours, Ripple sank – it is down by around a quarter from
its January 4 high. If the signal is that Ripple’s corporate-friendly,
centralised model has further to go than that of Bitcoin, it’s been
drowned out by noise.

If Bitcoin and its ilk are indeed the greatest bubble of our lifetimes,
we seem to be somewhere in between euphoria and profit-taking. The smart
money is diversifying out of Bitcoin, having made life-changing gains in
a digital asset that is proving too costly and clunky to gain real-world
traction. That should keep benefiting other sprightlier
crypto-currencies, along with the fact that those who feel they missed
out on Bitcoin are hunting for ways to get ten-fold returns.

Ripple is enjoying its moment in the
sun,
but the hype can fade as quickly as it arrives: In 2013, the list of top
rivals to Bitcoin’s crown included Namecoin, Peercoin and Feathercoin.
Yeah, me neither.

So even if Bitcoin is stumbling, it would be a stretch to say the party
is over. It would take a serious piece of bad news – and a coordinated
regulatory response – for this bubble to enter the panic stage. Price
weakness across the board on Monday suggests some unpredictability
ahead. Expect more volatility in 2018.

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